Topic XXII. Emergent Phenomena, Social Media, and Conspiracy Theories

  • OVERVIEW

    • Many phenomena in science are emergent, i.e., visible only at higher levels of organization. This tends to occur when large numbers of elements interact, e.g. as in individuals on social media. The rise of conspiracy theories and polarization via confirmation bias on social media is an important case of a recent emergent phenomenon.
    • Often people think that science is necessarily reductionist, but in fact we can observe many patterns that are emergent, i.e., visible only at higher levels of organization. That is, some phenomena are only describable in terms of higher-level, nonreductionist patterns. In emergent phenomena, complex patterns (like organisms with emotions) can emerge from surprisingly simple sets of rules (like natural selection). Humans often mistake emergent phenomena as either magically inexplicable or intentionally planned by some conductor/choreographer/director. This is especially likely if one is not aware that causal explanations can depend on emergence. The internet in general, and social media in particular, are relatively untested domains in which new sets of rules (algorithms that choose what to show, likes, etc.) are being tried out. These new sets of rules give rise to unintended emergent phenomena, such as the propagation of misinformation. In the case of social media, it seems to grow conspiracy theories by connecting people with similar views and exacerbating confirmation bias. At the same time, emergent phenomena of this new social world online may seem so choreographed that they give rise to new conspiracy theories. These two patterns may exacerbate the historically documented tendency of people to believe in false conspiracy theories, through interpreting surprising emergent patterns as deliberate and communicating with others who agree. On the other hand, it is also possible that the digital revolution makes actual conspiracies easier, as the internet facilitates communication and therefore coordination across distances.

  • EXAMPLES

    • Exemplars
      • Perhaps we are most familiar with this from the example of some objects feeling hot and some cold, which is a collective effect of the average motion of all the atoms or molecules making up the object, not of each individual atom or molecule.
      • A great example of this sort of emergent phenomenon can be seen in Conway’s Game of Life (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway%27sGameof_Life). For the SSS course we would like to act out a Game of Life activity with students playing the roles of the cells (perhaps in a football field, perhaps online).
      • Genes are "selected" by natural selection pressures that make genes which improve survival and reproduction more common through, literally, survival and reproduction, while genes which undermine survival or reproduction are less common because they are part of an organism that dies sooner and repoduces less. Although a gene may be described in reductionist terms of its molecular makeup and structure, its function in the organism must be described at the level of the whole organism in order to show why selection pressures push for or against it. Thus, a full explanation for why a gene is one way and not another (molecularly) must refer to its effect on the organism as a whole.
      • The spiral shape of a hurricane or storm is an emergent phenomenon from the movements and temperatures of the gases and liquid droplets that make it up.
      • "Consider, for example, a tornado. At any moment, a tornado depends for its existence on dust and debris, and ultimately on whatever micro-entities compose it; and its properties and behaviors likewise depend, one way or another, on the properties and interacting behaviors of its fundamental components. Yet the tornado’s identity does not depend on any specific composing micro-entity or configuration, and its features and behaviors appear to differ in kind from those of its most basic constituents, as is reflected in the fact that one can have a rather good understanding of how tornadoes work while being entirely ignorant of particle physics." - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy,"Emergent properties," Timothy O'Connor.
    • Cautionary Quotes: Mistakes, Misconceptions, and Misunderstandings
      • "My Facebook wall is covered with articles about the protests, so Mark Zuckerburg must want people riled up."
      • "Everyone I know voted for Graham, but he lost the election. It must have been rigged."
      • "Neuroscientists can't learn anything from psychologists, because they're actually looking at the brain, which is the cause of all human behavior."
      • "Someday scientists will know exactly what happiness is, because we'll be able to see it in the brain. Then philosophers and psychologists will be out of a job."
      • "If you can't explain it in terms of the movement of particles, you haven't explained it at all."
      • "If Twitter is exacerbating polarization, it must serve Jack Dorsey's ends in some way."
      • "If the world were really round, there wouldn't be so many people at these Flat Earther conventions."
      • "So many people attended the first Women's March in January 2017, it could not possibly have been organic. George Soros must have been paying them all."

  • LEARNING GOALS

    • ATTITUDES
      • Be wary of the assumption that all empirical patterns can be adequately explained in reductionist terms.
      • Be wary of assuming a deliberate agent is behind events.
        • This includes what looks like coordinated action on the internet.
      • Be wary of conspiracy theories, given the long history of false ones, especially in American politics.
    • CONCEPT ACQUISITION
      • There are different levels of description for complex phenomena, some (lower level) having to do with the individual motions of the parts, some (higher level) having to do with collective properties of the grouping. For example, cells can be explained at a molecular (lower) level, but some properties of cells only make sense at a functional (higher) level.
      • Reductionist Explanations: Reductionist explanations attempt to explain phenomena in terms of lower level, mechanistically simple and direct causal relations of their parts, as in one billiard ball hitting another billiard ball and thereby causing it to move.
      • Emergent Phenomena: The effect of many, many parts all doing simple things can lead to some very interesting patterns and behaviors only visible in the whole system. In fact, watching the whole system we can see scientifically testable causal relations that can only be explained by these higher level patterns, even though those patterns must emerge from all the individual elements doing their own things.
      • Much of science studies emergent causal explanations for phenomena, like the thermodynamic patterns of a gas made of molecules, or patterns of weather, mind, and society.
      • Humans have a tendency to overperceive agency in external phenomena in general (e.g. anthropomorphizing), making them prone to mistaking emergent phenomena as intentional.
      • A particularly important example of emergent phenomena in our modern world arises when people are highly connected to each other in social networks, with simple rules (likes, friending, re-tweeting, etc.) determining the interactions.
      • Social media are a fertile environment for unintended emergent phenomena, such as the propagation of misinformation (particularly misinformation that triggers strong enough emotions, like fear, that people are inclined to pass the misinformation on to their social-network ties).
      • Conspiracy Theory: A belief that a phenomenon is best explained by reference to a conspiracy, a secret group of people with a secret plot for their own purposes.
      • Some criteria to help recognize conspiracy theories that are unlikely to be true include:
        • Arguments involve "connecting the dots" between apparently disconnected events.
        • Accomplishing the conspiracy would require superhuman powers or secrecy from large numbers of people.
        • The conspiracy is highly ambitious or aims at world domination.
        • The conspiracy is highly complex.
        • The theory tends to intermingle facts and speculation without distinguishing between the two.
        • The conspiracy theorists refuse to consider alternative explanations or countervailing evidence.
        • The conspiracy theorists are indiscriminately suspicious of all members of a certain class, e.g. government officials, scientists, etc.
    • CONCEPT APPLICATION
      • Recognize the limitations of reductionism in particular cases.
        • Be wary of claims that genes fully explain emotional, cognitive, or behavioral phenomena, as most often these have both genetic and environmental factors.
        • Be wary of claims that neuroscience observations have fully "explained" emotional or behavioral phenomena.
      • Recognize some phenomena as emergent, and therefore not fully explicable by either reductionism or deliberate agents.
      • Recognize conspiracy theories that are likely to be mistaken.
      • Recognize emergent patterns in social media.
      • Recognize that social media can exacerbate false conspiracy theories in two ways:
        • Apparently deliberate social phenomena sometimes explained by reference to conspiracy can often be better explained by reference to emergence, especially in social media.
        • Social media creates emergent echo chambers that can increase polarization and false beliefs.
      • Recognize how the rapid changes of the internet could make real conspiracies either easier or more difficult:
        • The internet might make real conspiracies easier, since it facilitates communication and coordination.
        • The internet might make real conspiracies harder, since it is easier to leak and harder to keep secrets.
  • CLASS ELEMENTS
    • Possible Readings:
      • Richard Hofstadter (1964), “The Paranoid Style in American Politics.”
      • Philip Kitcher (1962), "Genes," The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 33 (4) 337-359.
      • Michael Shermer, "The Conspiracy Theory Detector," Scientific American
    • Clicker Questions
    • Discussion Questions
    • Class Exercises
      • Conway's Game of Life